Simulating the economic effects of reforming the government's revenue system by increasing tax rates (system dynamics approach)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ahlul bayt international university

2 damghan payam noor university

3 ahlul bayt intertional university

Abstract

An efficient tax system can play an important role in the functioning of the country's economic system and influence work motivation, savings, consumption, investment, and production. In Iran's economy, tax policies have only been seen as an income tool and have never been investigated as an efficient tool. In the current research, using the system dynamics method, the effects of taxes on macroeconomic variables during a long-term period of 20 years have been examined in the form of a scenario. The dynamic method is a method used to understand complex relationships, which is based on the control circuit structure and provides the opportunity to study the complex economic structure and behavior. Vensim software is used for simulation. The results of the scenario implementation show that the initial tax rate in the case of 10% and 25% has caused the government to have a budget surplus, and as a result, the government's income, tax income, private sector investment and production will increase. Despite the initial jump of 25% in the tax rate over 12 years due to the public budget surplus, the trend of this rate has decreased and then increased, so with the increase in the tax rate in different scenarios, not only the amount of investment and production will not decrease, but also with the allocation The efficiency of government revenues and the development of the country's infrastructure can increase the country's gross domestic product.

Keywords